Scott Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

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Weather Forecast Discussion

196
FXUS66 KMFR 261355
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
655 AM PDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.DISCUSSION...With the aid of lingering low level moisture in the
wake of the past couple of days of showers, and relatively light
north winds, areas of low clouds are in place west of the
Cascades...especially banked up against the north facing slopes of
the southern portions of the Umpqua and Rogue valleys. A ridge and
deepening thermal trough will bring a drying northeast flow
today with skies expected to clear by the afternoon. The air mass
will continue to dry into Saturday with a more limited coverage of
patchy late night valley clouds each night.

Well-below-freezing low temperatures in the teens and 20s are
expected east of the Cascades again on both Friday and Saturday,
while a widespread frost and areas of freezing temperatures will
be present again on the West Side on Friday.

The ridge will weaken and shift eastward during the weekend.
Though still with chilly mornings and very warm afternoons, low
temperatures will trend higher and high temperatures will trend
lower during the weekend.

This will help usher in a change in the pattern early next week.
It still is most likely that rain with a cold front, the first in
a series of disturbances, will hold off at the coast until late
Sunday night. But, the 00Z ECMWF is in harmony with a distinct
minority of ensemble members that indicate a few light showers in
southwest Oregon as early as Sunday afternoon.

There is better model agreement on the cold front tracking across
our area during Monday into Monday night with snow levels around
7000 feet, though still not in solid agreement on the speed or
strength of the front. As such, west side rain is likely for the
coast and higher terrain, but amounts are in question. This also
leads to differences in whether there will be much precipitation
on the east side in a rather unfavorable west-southwest flow
aloft.

Beyond Monday, for at least Tuesday into Tuesday night, the
question becomes the extent to which the slow moving front will
remain over our area while a reinforcing trough moves eastward
toward northern California. This looks to be a high probability of
light showers situation across our area, with rain favored in
Siskiyou County and southward.

For Wednesday and Thursday, model differences increase, but so
does the probability of a trough and associated cold front that
would be strong enough to call it a storm system. Snow levels are
forecast at around 4500 to 5000 feet, which would just get down to
many of the major passes, or at least the soil adjacent to those
road surfaces. For now, will have to just stay tuned with a
possibility of colder/wetter or less cold/less wet solutions to
verify.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z TAFs...Gusty north winds are expected along the
coast today into this evening with low level speeds of 20 to 40 kt.
Conditions across the area will be mainly VFR into Friday morning,
except for patches of valley IFR and terrain obscuration until
around 18Z this morning. This includes the Coquille and Camas
valleys, and portions of the Umpqua, Rogue, and Scott valleys.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, March 26, 2026...A thermal
trough will strengthen into this evening, and remain strong into
Friday night. North winds will reach gale force to the south of Cape
Blanco this afternoon and evening, with steep to very steep seas
across the southern Oregon coastal waters into Friday night. The
main update this morning was to extend the hazardous seas warning in
the southern outer waters and the small craft advisory for the
remainder of the waters through Friday evening, with northerly winds
on Friday expected to be only slightly less strong than those today.

Winds ease Saturday, but seas are likely to remain steep. Further
improvement is expected on Sunday, with a period of below advisory
seas possible to end the weekend. Active weather could bring rain
and building seas from Monday into the middle of next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this
     morning for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356.

     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Friday for
     PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-370.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ376.

&&

$$

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